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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • Article for those with paywall:

    Starved of ammunition, the gunners of Ukraine’s 47th Brigade were not able to hit the Russian convoy before it was upon their infantry on Avdiivka’s northern flank.

    Five armoured vehicles rolled into the village of Stepove, guns firing, allowing about 40 Russian soldiers to run for cover in the houses around Ukrainian positions. A Bradley fighting vehicle was deployed towards the Russians. American armour was to be put to the test against Russian.

    This fierce battle was part of a desperate action to save Avdiivka, in the east of the country, from imminent collapse and prevent a victory for President Putin in time for the launch of his election campaign and New Year festivities.

    The 47th is one of Ukraine’s best-equipped brigades. Outfitted with German Leopard 2 tanks and American Bradley M1 fighting vehicles to lead the summer counteroffensive, it was tasked with breaking heavily fortified positions in a run to the Black Sea, but was withdrawn in October after making only six miles, mauled by Russian bombing, minefields and Lancet drones.

    “With great equipment comes great responsibilities,” said Sergeant Danylo “Sausage”, 23, who is part of a 2nd Battalion, 47th Brigade air reconnaissance team. He shows me a live feed of the battle from four of his drones.

    The war in Ukraine is at a critical moment. The fall of Avdiivka would mean Ukrainian forces fall back to the reservoirs of Karlivka and the heights at Ocheretyne. Karlivka supplies water to the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas, with any battle there severely disrupting its flow. Seizing the heights at Ocheretyne, two miles away, would allow the Russians to begin razing Myrnohrad, a city of 50,000.

    Unless the West provides brigades like the 47th with ammunition, they will be unable to stop Putin’s troops. The Russians could run on to Dnipro, with a population of one million, and sweep north towards Kyiv, cutting off Ukraine’s army in the Donbas.